Jahr: 2021

Cena Bitcoin „ulgowy“ ruch do $47K spycha BTC poniżej trajektorii stock-to-flow

Twórca modeli stock-to-flow, PlanB, twierdzi, że Bitcoin nadal zachowuje się „jak w zegarku“ w odniesieniu do ich przewidywań.

Bitcoin (BTC) może unieszczęśliwiać traderów długoterminowych, ale jeden byczy analityk twierdzi, że „ulżyło mu“, że spadł o 22% w ciągu tygodnia.

W swojej ostatniej aktualizacji w mediach społecznościowych, analityk quant PlanB zauważył, że dip cenowy do poziomu poniżej 48 000 USD wysłał BTC/USD poniżej celu określonego przez jego model cenowy stock-to-flow.

„Zdumiewający“ stock-to-flow znów ma rację

W związku z tym Bitcoin nie jest już „front-running“ stock-to-flow, który tradycyjnie jest bardzo dokładnym narzędziem do prognozowania cen. Po handlu powyżej wymaganego poziomu, PlanB zasugerował, że stał się zaniepokojony, że postęp staje się nieorganiczny.

„Jestem jakby z ulgą, że cena btc jest teraz znowu pod wartością modelu s2f“ – napisał w rozmowie z autorem „The Bitcoin Standard“ Saifedeanem Ammousem, który nazwał jego przewidywania „zdumiewającymi“.

„Przez chwilę myślałem, że ludzie są przednimi biegaczami modelu i że rozpoczął się supercykl. Teraz wracamy do normalności … jak w zegarku“.

Oba terminy „clockwork“ i „supercykl“ będą znajome dla długoterminowych hodlerów, te często opisują relację Bitcoina do stock-to-flow i cechy obecnej passy byków, odpowiednio.

Jak donosi Cointelegraph, dwie iteracje modelu, stock-to-flow i stock-to-flow (S2F) cross-asset (S2FX), w różny sposób wzywają do średniej ceny BTC/USD w wysokości $100,000 lub $288,000 od teraz do 2024 roku.

Wcześniej PlanB powiedział, że wierzy, że Bitcoin nie zatrzyma się na 100 000 USD, które powinien uderzyć w tym roku

„Bitcoiners są często zbyt byczy na rynku byka, a zbyt niedźwiedzi na rynku niedźwiedzia!“ gospodarz podcastu Stephan Livera, odpowiedział Ammousowi.

„Nie sądzę, że tym razem również nie mamy supercyklu“.

Wstrząs nastrojów trwa

W międzyczasie różne czynniki były przedstawiane jako impuls do najnowszej rundy strat cenowych, te w tym kontrakty terminowe CME obecnie notowane poniżej ceny spot w miarę wchodzenia niedźwiedzi, a także negatywna premia Coinbase.

Ta ostatnia sugeruje byczą postawę, gdy jest dodatnia, ale odwrotna sytuacja – gdy cena spot Coinbase jest niższa niż cena innej giełdy Binance – jest również prawdziwa.

Ujemna premia zbiegła się w czasie z serią dużych zleceń sprzedaży na Coinbase, z których każde spowodowało krótki skok w dół w cenie spot orderbook.

Na znak, że irracjonalne nastroje wciąż muszą opuścić rynek, Crypto Fear & Greed Index również pozostał na terytorium „chciwości“ pomimo spadku do miesięcznych minimów, choć wciąż sugeruje, że reset nastrojów jeszcze nie nastąpił.

Podczas początkowego spadku z rekordowych poziomów wszech czasów w pobliżu $65,000, Bitcoin doświadczył masowego upłynniania długich pozycji.

Bulls zijn nog steeds in volle kracht

Crypto-analisten over Bitcoin-recordrun: ‚Bulls zijn nog steeds in volle kracht‘

Experts zien geen echte reden voor de marktleidende cryptocurrency om zich op korte termijn terug te trekken.

In de afgelopen 24 uur is Bitcoin (BTC) in staat geweest om bijna naar $50.000 te klimmen, grotendeels dankzij de investering van $1,5 miljard van deze week van de innovatieve automaker Tesla. Hoewel dit betekent dat de marktleidende cryptocurrency nu al meer dan 100% boven Crypto Cash zijn vorige recordhoogte van iets minder dan 20.000 dollar is geklommen, die in 2017 werd gezet, heeft de crypto-handelaar onder het pseudoniem „Cheds“ er vertrouwen in dat de huidige run nog hoger zal doorgaan.

„Ik denk dat veel mensen hier hopen op een plafondformatie, of zichzelf op zijn minst wijsmaken dat die er moet komen omdat de prijs zo snel zo sterk is gestegen,“ vertelde de expert met een focus op technische analyse aan Cointelegraph.

In december 2020 was de bitcoin de $19.892 van 2017 voorbijgestreefd, gevolgd door een dramatische stijging naar $41.981 in januari 2021. Na een korte retracement, trok de crypto-marktleider vervolgens aan naar een nieuw hoogtepunt van $48.911 op 11 februari.

„Naar mijn mening zijn de stieren nog steeds in volle kracht, met elke dag nieuwe berichten over verdere belangstelling van institutionele beleggers en een toenemende vraag, die de huidige stijging zal blijven aanwakkeren,“ zei Cheds. Meer mainstreamspelers stappen momenteel in Bitcoin. Softwaremaker MicroStrategy bijvoorbeeld was tot voor kort met een investering van 1 miljard dollar de grootste investeerder uit het bedrijfsleven, maar autofabrikant Tesla valt nu die eer te beurt. Sindsdien hebben echter veel andere bedrijven geïnvesteerd in de crypto-marktleider.

Hij doelt op het recente nieuws dat Canada gisteren

„Als sommige mensen denken dat Bitcoin nu zal dalen vanwege de nieuwe Canadese Bitcoin ETF of het Chinese Nieuwjaar, dan is dat gewoon een excuus dat ze nodig hebben omdat ze toch willen verkopen,“ zoals de expert de onheilsprofetieën van critici classificeert. Hij doelt op het recente nieuws dat Canada gisteren het eerste Noord-Amerikaanse bitcoin indexfonds heeft goedgekeurd.

„Gisteren raakten we een nieuwe recordhoogte op 49.000 dollar,“ zoals handelaar CryptoWendyO het optimisme van haar collega herhaalt. „Maar we hebben moeite om de grens van 50.000 dollar te bereiken,“ vervolgt ze. Waaraan zij echter toevoegt:

„De 50.000 is onvermijdelijk, maar in het weekend moeten we voorlopig de US$44.700-zone in de gaten houden, tenzij we een tweet van Elon Musk krijgen die #Bitcoin naar US$54.000 katapulteert.“

De Tesla CEO was de afgelopen dagen weer aan het „tweeten“ over cryptocurrencies, maar hij was de laatste tijd vooral Dogecoin (DOGE) aan het opstoken.

21Shares lists Polkadot ETP on Swiss exchange SIX

21Shares lists Polkadot ETP on Swiss exchange SIX

21Shares‘ Crypto Basket ETP has now replaced Bitcoin Cash with Polkadot.

21Shares, a major provider of exchange-traded cryptocurrency products (ETP), is launching the world’s first Polkadot (DOT) ETP.

The new product, called DOT ETP, will be listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange on 4 February 2021, 21Shares said on Tuesday.

Polkadot was added to 21Shares‘ flagship Crypto Basket ETP (HODL) product on 29 January. After five major cryptos such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), HODL has removed Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and now lists Polkadot with the second largest share after Bitcoin.

According to HODL ETP data from MVIS Indices, Polkadot now makes up about 27 percent of the product, while Bitcoin makes up of Bitcoin Evolution about 50 percent.

A 21Shares spokesperson told Cointelegraph that the company does not make decisions about adding or removing a particular asset from the HODL ETP. The representative explained that such decisions rest with MV Index Solutions.

„As an issuer, we cannot decide what to add and take out. There is a committee that decides what components to add, increase, decrease or take out altogether.“

According to the announcement, the addition of Polkadot to the 21shares Crypto Basket ETP is the „perfect time to add another single-asset ETP to the already broad range of crypto ETPs“ that 21shares can offer.

CEO of 21Shares Hany Rashwan stressed that the company continues to serve demand from institutional investors

„After investors acquired their first Bitcoins through our ETPs, there is a natural investment transition into other crypto-assets,“ Rashwan said. He added that the firm plans to offer two or three more ETPs in the next three months:

„We benefit from trusted partners to provide liquidity and due to continued institutional demand, we are launching the DOT ETP to provide investors with a safe, regulated and easy way to invest in this exciting new blockchain technology. In the next 3 months, we aim to launch 2 to 3 more innovative ETPs.“

Polkadot is a next-generation blockchain protocol that connects multiple specialised blockchains into a unified network. In mid-January 2021, Polkadot’s proprietary token called DOT made headlines when it overtook XRP to become the fourth largest cryptocurrency. At the time of going to press, DOT was at $16.82. That’s an increase of almost 5 per cent in the last 24 hours and around 82 per cent in the last 30 days, according to data from CoinGecko.

„Beware the Bitcoin bubble,“ says Bank of America

About US$10 billion was invested in shares last week, according to the BofA, while US$1.5 billion went into gold.

Bitcoin „is the door to previous bubbles“ according to Bank of America analysts, who say digital currency is „bubbling“, citing the „violent“ action of the „frothy“ price that has driven digital currency in the last two months.

The bank said that cryptomime has soared in the past 12 months and reached levels similar to other bubbles, such as China’s in the late 1990s, 2000s and gold in the 1970s.

„Foaming prices, greedy positions, inflationary formulators and desperate […],“ said BofA chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett.

Bitcoin mother of all bubbles
Bank of America is one of the largest financial institutions in the world, serving approximately 56 million customers in the United States. The bank is among the world’s leading wealth management companies.

The bank recommended selling a number of shares due to „sparkling prices“ after its data showed that investors were invading the money markets and gold funds, while the stock market exuberance declined slightly.

The BofA said the trend to „buy everything“ in 2020 had reached 2021, but expected a slowdown in risky assets (bitcoin) as „politics, positioning and profits“ peaked around March.

About $10 billion was invested in stocks last week, according to the BofA, while $1.5 billion went into gold.

It is not clear yet how much investment went into Bitcoin, with GrayScale alone attracting about half a billion a week at the end of December.

Investors have been investing in gold and Bitcoin as the dollar weakens with the mass printing of cash.

In addition, digital currency is being adopted as a portfolio diversification after numerous studies conclude that the asset increases risk-adjusted returns.

This, however, may look like a bubble because it is the first time we are witnessing the launch and integration of an asset that was not subject to the laws of wealthy investors.

Startups like the then Facebook or Google are closed to the public in the early stages by the Securities Act of 1933.

At this stage of rapid growth and rapid appreciation, the Bitcoin Millionaire company is not publicly traded and therefore does not have a price that we can all invest in.

However, it does have a private price that is affordable only to the rich and banks. If that price were accounted for too, all those firms would look like a huge massive bubble.

So it is not that Bitcoin is a bubble. It is more that, for the first time, we are witnessing the true open public pricing of an asset from its inception.

An asset that is growing in adoption and therefore is growing rapidly in price because bankers did not first buy all the shares or currencies to sell them to the public at a high price in an Initial Public Offering (IPO) as they did with Facebook, Google, and all the other companies.

Showing a disconnect between the rich first and then the rest, for everyone first based on merit.

This difference explains why the term „bubble“ is vomited every time Bitcoin goes up.

If the bankers had bought it before everyone else then it would have been a bubble.

Bitcoin, however, was publicly released at a price of zero and at a zero market capitalization, unlike any asset before it, perhaps in history.

So, if Bitcoin is a bubble, the rapid increase in value of any growing startup is a bubble too, something that would make everything a bubble, and therefore none.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Aumento previsto in punti di volatilità di Ether-Bitcoin verso Altcoin Season Ahead

Il mercato delle opzioni sta segnalando un imminente cambiamento nel focus del mercato – da BitQT a etere relativamente sottovalutato e altre crittocorse alternative.

Lo spread tra la volatilità implicita semestrale

Lo spread tra la volatilità implicita semestrale (IV) per l’etere (ETH, +7,53%) e il bitcoin (BTC, +11,82%) – una misura della volatilità relativa attesa tra i due – è salito a un massimo record del 46%. Questo supera il precedente picco del 45% registrato il 21 febbraio 2020, secondo il fornitore di dati Skew. Gli spread a tre e sei mesi sono saliti a un massimo di 11 mesi, rispettivamente del 32% e del 23%.

L’allargamento degli spread IV indica che il mercato si aspetta che il mercato si aspetti che l’etere e le altre monete alternative registrino nel breve termine una percentuale di movimenti più alta rispetto al bitcoin.

„I trader si aspettano una maggiore volatilità dell’etere rispetto al bitcoin“, ha detto a CoinDesk il CEO di Skew, Emmanuel Goh. „Questo è coerente con la diminuzione della correlazione e con un aumento dell’interesse per le valute crittografiche alternative“.

La volatilità implicita è l’aspettativa del mercato su quanto rischiosa o volatile sarebbe un’attività in un periodo specifico ed è guidata dalla pressione netta di acquisto per le opzioni e dalla volatilità storica dei prezzi. L’etere è la seconda valuta crittografica per valore di mercato, e molte altre cosiddette altcoin sono basate sulla tecnologia a catena di blocco dell’Ethereum. Come tali, le crittocorse alternative tendono a commerciare in linea con l’etere.

Lo spread di un mese ha visto un aumento di cinque volte dal 30 dicembre, insieme ad una correlazione positiva che si è indebolita tra etere e bitcoin.

La tendenza sembra destinata a continuare

La correlazione realizzata a tre mesi è scesa dal 67% al 56% negli ultimi cinque giorni per toccare il livello più basso da marzo 2018, secondo la fonte dei dati Skew. La tendenza sembra destinata a continuare, come suggerito dall’allargamento degli spread IV.

Mentre l’aumento dello spread di volatilità implica la possibilità di mosse percentuali relativamente più grandi in altcoins, non ci dice nulla sulla direzione delle mosse.

Detto questo, le crittocorse alternative sembrano ora a buon mercato rispetto al bitcoin e il mercato è estremamente rialzista. Quindi gli alts potrebbero presto registrare guadagni percentuali maggiori rispetto al leader del mercato delle crittocorse bitcoin, come previsto dagli analisti all’inizio di questa settimana.

Nonostante sia passato da $700 a $1.200 questo mese, l’etere è ancora sotto di quasi il 20% rispetto al suo massimo record di $1.432,88 raggiunto nel gennaio 2018. Allo stesso modo, litecoin (LTC, +2,7%), stellare (XLM, +12,93%), chainlink (LINK, +2,79%) e altre monete di spicco non hanno ancora fissato nuovi massimi a vita. Al prezzo attuale di oltre 37.000 dollari, il bitcoin è aumentato di oltre il 60% rispetto al precedente massimo a vita di 19.783 dollari registrato tre anni fa.

Alcuni potrebbero sostenere che la volatilità implicita riflette le aspettative degli investitori sulle turbolenze dei prezzi e potrebbe non essere riflessa nei grafici futuri. Tuttavia, i dati storici mostrano che gli spread di volatilità implicita sono indicatori affidabili dei prossimi cambiamenti del mercato.

Ad esempio, lo spread di ether-bitcoin IV si è manifestato nella seconda metà di settembre 2020, avvertendo di una grande mossa in bitcoin. La cripto-valuta ha sovraperformato la maggior parte degli altri criptos di un margine significativo nell’ultimo trimestre dello scorso anno con un rally del 168%.